How does DelayGuard predict flight delays?
DelayGuard combines an XGBoost machine-learning model trained on millions of BTS flight records with real-time data from weather services, live FAA advisories, and flight tracking APIs. The result is a delay probability score (0–100%) specific to your route, airline, departure hour, and date.
How accurate is AI flight delay prediction?
No model can foresee every crew issue, last-minute ATC decision or pop-up storm, so DelayGuard is built to be honest about risk. The v9 model uses only information available before departure and was tested on a later quarter of real US flights it never saw during training. Closer to departure, live weather and FAA advisories also feed into the score.
Is DelayGuard free to use?
Yes — free accounts get 3 predictions per day with risk bands (Low / Moderate / High / Very High Risk) shown. The model behind every prediction is trained on nearly 4 million real US domestic flights. Upgrading to Premium ($4.99/month or $39/year) unlocks unlimited predictions, exact probability percentages, full risk factor breakdown, saved flights with alerts, PDF/CSV export, and an ad-free experience.
Which airlines and airports does DelayGuard cover?
DelayGuard currently covers all major US domestic airlines including American, Delta, United, Southwest, JetBlue, Alaska, Frontier, Allegiant, and more — operating across 80 US airports supported for predictions, with full delay guides for 22 major hubs. Spirit Airlines (NK) ceased all operations on May 2, 2026 and is no longer covered for active predictions. International routes are planned for a future update.
What causes most US domestic flight delays?
According to BTS data, the leading causes are: late-arriving aircraft (cascade delays, ~35%), carrier delays like crew scheduling (~30%), weather (~20%), and NAS/air traffic control restrictions (~12%). Only a small fraction are security-related. DelayGuard's model weights all these factors in its predictions.
Is it better to fly in the morning to avoid delays?
Generally yes. In BTS data for January 2023 to December 2025, 11.0% of flights scheduled before 8 AM arrived 15 or more minutes late, against 28.7% of flights scheduled after 8 PM. The aircraft has spent the night at the airport, so an early departure has no late inbound flight to wait for.
Can DelayGuard predict SpaceX launch scrubs?
Yes — DelayGuard's Launch Predictor estimates scrub probability for upcoming SpaceX launches using live NOAA weather data, NASA's official Launch Commit Criteria, and site-specific historical scrub rates. Only launches verified on spacex.com are listed. Visit delayguard.ai/launch-predictor to check the next mission.